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Quarterly results

The report a company publishes every three months on how its business did.

Four times a year a listed company reports what happened in the last three months: sales, profit, cash, and a view of what comes next. The report lands at a fixed date and time, and the stock usually moves hard in the first minutes of trading afterwards, because everyone updates their opinion at once.

That reaction is the raw material of two opposite pitches: buy the dip after a bad report, or ride the drift after a good one. Both are about what happens in the days after the announcement, which is why the earnings calendar is the first tool sold with them. The logbook's entry on earnings measured fifty six thousand of these reactions and found that neither pitch survives costs in large companies today.

Holding window, d+2 → d+12Earnings reactionBuy the dipExit
Up session Down session What we expected Sounded windowIllustrative, not market data
Illustrative. After a bad earnings reaction we expected a bounce over the next ten sessions (dotted). What we found was continuation: the loser kept falling.

Where this word comes up

First needed in the log entry H-042 · The post-earnings bounce did not survive our cost assumptions.

From the same entry: Backtest, Basis point, Buy the dip, Correction for looking twice, Gross edge, Index membership, Large caps, Net return, Post-earnings drift, Pre-registration, Published anomaly, Real costs, RSI indicator, Short side, Survivors only, Terciles.

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