Ledger
How much ground has been surveyed and how much of it turned out barren, by the kind of mechanism we were looking for. Updated September 5, 2026.
76
hypotheses tested
51
surveyed and found barren
25
still under survey
By kind of ground
Share of surveyed ground that turned out barren.
The numbers
| Kind of ground | Surveyed | Barren | Barren share |
|---|---|---|---|
| event / calendar | 27 | 15 | 56% |
| trend / momentum | 11 | 10 | 91% |
| flows | 10 | 7 | 70% |
| microstructure | 7 | 6 | 86% |
| mean reversion | 7 | 4 | 57% |
| other | 7 | 4 | 57% |
| cross-sectional | 3 | 2 | 67% |
| volatility / options | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| carry / funding | 2 | 2 | 100% |
A high share of barren ground is not a flaw of the search: it is what a rigorous search looks like. Real costs, out-of-sample data, nulls and multiplicity leave very little standing.